MODELING AND NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF MANGROVE FOREST RELATIVE ABUNDANCE IN THE PRESENCE OF ARTISANAL HYDROCARBON REFINING

Abstract

In modeling the impact of artisanal hydrocarbon on biodiversity of a mangrove forest vegetation using computational approach, numerical analysis practice was used for such an event of a complex dynamical system that can not admit an analytic solution for the qualitative characteristics over time. We adopted an alternative method to study the impact analysis of the solution trajectory for various case scenario as ???? → ∞. This challenging problem was tackled computationally using MATLAB ODE45 Runge-Kutta numerical scheme for a time interval of 0(10)120 in months. This research work used the mathematical procedure for parameter estimation using exponential growth and decayed model equation as well as statistical procedure for obtaining parameters through linear relationship of the data sets of the variables.  Due to hydrocarbon impact on the mangrove forest vegetation, the numerical simulated data base shows that on the based day of our experimental time here called the initial condition, the relative abundance of the first site N1 was recorded as 0.01 units whereas sites N2 and N3 records 0.01units same values each as well. Furthermore, from the tenth (10^th) month up to the one hundred and twentieth (120^th) months, the data base result shows a monotonic decreasing pattern in the relative abundance in the coordinates of N1, N2 and N3 of which the value of the coordinates of N1 was recorded as 0.0035units on the tenth (10^th) month which decreases to a value of 0.0001units on the fiftieth (50^th) months before going into ecological extinction from the sixtieth (60^th) month down to the one hundred and twentieth month (120^th ).